News
NY Times Finds Worries Over BO Slide
By Robert Marich
Dec. 26, 2011-A thoughtful New York Times analysis says the domestic box office is 4.5% behind last year, with just five days left to year-end so that shortfall will stand, and that is creating big worries in Hollywood.
The year-ago period was bolstered by all-time box office champ Avatar from 20th Century Fox, so 2011’s decline is in part due to a tough comparison to an inflated 2010.
“But studio executives are alarmed by the downturn nonetheless, in part because the real picture is worse than the raw revenue numbers suggest,” notes the New York Times article by Brooks Barnes. The dollar total is buttressed by growing 3-D, which commands a $3-5 premium on each ticket, so attendance (unit ticket sales) is off a steeper 5.3%.
“What has gone wrong?” the article asks. “Plenty, say studio distribution executives, who point to competition for leisure dollars, particularly among financially pressed young people (the movie industry’s most coveted demographic); too many family movies; and the continued erosion of star power.”
The youth demographic is particularly hard hit by recession, leaving it less free spending. The youth audience is more picky—spending freely for some top cartridge video games, for example—but skipping movies that in richer times might get more box office.
Films for older moviegoers connected—particularly social period drama The Help distributed by Walt Disney Studios and raunchy R-rated comedy Bridesmaids from Universal.
The New York Times says that Hollywood’s star system shows signs of strain with Cowboys and Aliens only a moderate hit despite the bright wattage of Harrison Ford and Daniel Craig, and Larry Crowne bombing despite the poignant romance between Julie Roberts and Tom Hanks.
Some ascending stars also didn’t deliver. “Ryan Reynolds never took off as Green Lantern and Jonah Hill, praised for a supporting role in Moneyball, flopped as the main attraction in The Sitter, says the New York Times article. “Russell Brand missed in a remake of Arthur, as did Taylor Lautner in Abduction. Amanda Seyfried struggled in Red Riding Hood.” (Didn’t Russell Brand head for a gig in TV?)
The article is thoughtful and pulls together many complex strands of business. However, I’ll add that box office only contributes 20% of major studio movie revenue, so the slippage of the larger DVD segment is a greater economic concern. I think star power is diluted in large part because many of today’s stars insist on political and social activism while pretending they are not one percenters. That diminishes their appeal.
Also, I’ll argue that the box office glass is “half full” because of the proliferation of movie platforms after cinema run—in ever shortening windows. So in my view the theatrical window is doing reasonable well…so far.
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www.nytimes.com/2011/12/26/business/media/a-year-of-disappointment-for-hollywood.html
www.marketingmovies.net/news/lack-of-sleeper-hits-deflates-10-boxoffice/
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